Previewing this yr’s 16-driver playoff discipline heading to a crown jewel kickoff at Darlington Raceway.
The 2022 NASCAR Cup Collection playoffs are right here. This weekend’s Cook dinner Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway isn’t simply one of many crown jewels on this sport; it’s additionally the kickoff for the 10-race, elimination-style playoff system that can decide this yr’s champion.
Yearly, you hear all types of selling hyperbole (this discipline is the finest ever assembled! We’ve by no means had a postseason fairly like this one!) However in 2022, these statements include robust proof to again them up.
For the primary time since this format debuted in 2014, we had 16 winners in the course of the common season, making this discipline probably the most tough to make. Ryan Blaney, who completed third within the common season standings, is barely within the playoff as a result of a kind of winners, Kurt Busch, has been sidelined since a concussion suffered at Pocono Raceway in late July. Martin Truex Jr., who was fourth in common season factors, didn’t win and was the primary driver omitted.
Let me repeat: Martin Truex Jr., who has been prime 2 in factors in 4 of the final 5 years, didn’t even make the lower. In his place, we have now 4 drivers making their first playoff look and just one driver (Chase Elliott) incomes greater than two wins in the course of the common season. In actual fact, second via sixteenth in factors are separated by solely 20 getting into this spherical, probably the most parity on paper because the stage racing period started in 2017.
Let’s take a better have a look at who made it by group.
Hendrick Motorsports (4)
Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, William Byron
2020 NASCAR Cup champion Elliott is in the most effective place to win one other title in 2022. 4 victories and the common season championship left him the highest seed, holding a 15-point benefit over another driver within the discipline.
Larson, the reigning Cup champion, had a tough yr that included a four-race suspension for crew chief Cliff Daniels and simply two victories. However Darlington is one in every of his finest tracks statistically (8.9 common end) which ought to depart him beginning this postseason robust. It might be a shock to see Larson eradicated earlier than the Spherical of 8.
The wild playing cards are Bowman and Byron, each drivers who locked down their spots early on in 2022 solely to battle since. Darlington is an inflection level for Byron, who was bumped out of the lead right here by Joey Logano and is but to recuperate. He enters the playoffs and not using a top-5 end since Martinsville in April and has simply 42 laps led since Memorial Day weekend.
Bowman is in even worse form, and not using a top-5 end since Dover in Might. The Las Vegas race winner has led simply three races all yr, together with 11 laps led within the Daytona regular-season finale.
Each Byron and Bowman are anticipated to advance as a part of the top-performing crew in NASCAR. However don’t be stunned if each are passed by the Spherical of 8.
Crew Penske (3)
Austin Cindric, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano
Logano and Blaney, each prime 3 within the common season standings, give Penske hope of reaching the Championship 4. Logano received Darlington in Might and is predicted to contend this weekend, incomes the second seed behind Chase Elliott and a slight cushion on the sector.
Blaney, whereas failing to win a points-paying occasion, captured the All-Star Race in Might and remained constant: he even led the factors briefly in the course of the common season. The primary spherical is probably the most tough for him (ending seventeenth and twelfth within the Darlington/Kansas races earlier this yr) however his outlook improves dramatically starting within the Spherical of 12.
Cindric, in the meantime, is predicted to be the odd man out regardless of a season-opening Daytona 500 victory. Seven of his eight top-10 finishes this yr have been at pack racing superspeedways and street programs; neither monitor kind is contained in the Spherical of 16.
Joe Gibbs Racing (3)
Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell
Hamlin’s yr has been powerful to determine. Two wins have been balanced out by a whopping six DNFs, together with a Pocono DQ that negated a 3rd victory. Sloppy errors on pit street have value the No. 11 in a number of races, leaving him simply fifteenth in common season factors. The very best common end amongst all drivers at Darlington (7.8) makes him virtually sure to advance into the Spherical of 12; after that, all bets are off.
Teammate Kyle Busch is a good greater wild card, going 11 races and not using a top-5 end as his contract negotiations have grow to be a serious distraction. With buzz growing Busch is headed elsewhere for 2023, it’s unlikely his No. 18 crew can keep targeted sufficient to advance into the later rounds.
Third-year driver Christopher Bell would possibly truly be JGR’s finest hope throughout a down yr. Bell, the New Hampshire race winner, had top-6 finishes at each Darlington and Kansas this spring; throughout the board, the consistency is there at each monitor kind to make a deep run.
Richard Childress Racing (2)
Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick
Reddick is in a weird lame-duck state of affairs at RCR; he’ll be leaving after the 2023 season for 23XI Racing. So long as Kurt Busch’s damage doesn’t transfer up the timeline, although, his No. 8 crew has proved they’re again within the recreation, successful at Indianapolis a couple of weeks after the information broke. It’s the most effective likelihood this group has to make the Championship 4 since Ryan Newman did it within the first yr of this format (2014).
Dillon, in the meantime, enters with the momentum of an upset Daytona victory. However the No. 3 crew has had a down yr, failing to match Reddick’s consistency, and advancing to the Spherical of 12 can be a shock. Dillon’s 2022 can be remembered extra for his actuality present on USA than the crew’s on-track efficiency.
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Trackhouse Racing Crew (2)
Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez
TRT makes its first playoff look with arguably the quickest driver within the discipline: Chastain. The issue is their prime driver has revamped half the sector mad and itching for payback. Bristol can be a fantastic place to do it, positioning his rivals to knock out a prime title contender out after the Spherical of 16.
Suarez, in the meantime, has quietly posted six top-10 finishes within the final 11 races, together with a win at Sonoma in June that obtained him within the discipline. The No. 99 crew seems like that sneaky, under-the-radar choose that makes the Spherical of 8 just by surviving the chaos round them.
Stewart-Haas Racing (2)
Kevin Harvick, Chase Briscoe
Harvick enters the playoffs as one of many hottest drivers within the discipline, successful back-to-back races in August (Michigan, Richmond) to finish a winless streak of practically two seasons. Essentially the most dominant driver in a COVID-19-filled 2020 spiraled out of the Championship 4 that yr; might 2022 be the time Woman Luck pays him again as a 46-year-old underdog surging into title rivalry?
SHR teammate Briscoe is just fortunate to be right here; earlier than Busch’s concussion, he seemed weak to dropping out of the sector if there have been 17 common season winners. His maiden Cup victory at Phoenix in March would give him an edge ought to the No. 14 crew attain the Championship 4; for him to get there, although, would take a minor miracle.
Drivers Eradicated After Spherical of 16: Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Austin Dillon
Championship 4: Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick
Cook dinner Out Southern 500
Date: Sunday, Sept. 4
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Observe: Darlington Raceway (Darlington, S.C.)
TV: USA Community
Radio: MRN, SIRIUS XM Channel 90
Who’s on the Entrance: Austin Dillon
The seas actually parted for Dillon in a weird Daytona end, the place the No. 3 automobile went from a lap down into the lead in a matter of minutes. When the lead pack drove right into a rainstorm on lap 138, a serious wreck ensued forward of Dillon, capable of drive via the carnage with ease after incomes his lap again and restarting behind the sector.
“I don’t know what you name that,” Dillon mentioned. “We went from 15th to first. I do know what it’s referred to as. It’s referred to as the nice Lord was taking care of us.”
Who’s on the Again: Brad Keselowski
Hopes for a Daytona upset disappeared for Keselowski early, concerned within the first critical wreck of the day. His streak of eight straight playoff appearances resulted in ugly style throughout his first yr as proprietor/driver of RFK Racing, failing to earn a single top-5 end within the common season.
Information Briefs
Bubba Wallace will run the No. 45 in the course of the postseason, competing for the proprietor’s championship instead of Kurt Busch. Ty Gibbs will swap to the No. 23 as 23XI Racing‘s full-time driver will get some much-needed playoff expertise. It’s the No. 45, not Crew Penske’s No. 12, who slots into that discipline of 16 as a consequence of their Might victory at Kansas.
A brand new NASCAR broken automobile coverage goes into impact with this weekend at Darlington. Groups will now have 10 minutes, not six, to fulfill minimal velocity when repairing their automobile after a wreck earlier than being pressured out of the race.
Austin Dillon can be shedding crew chief Justin Alexander after the 2022 season. Alexander, who didn’t give a cause for his resolution to step away, has been on prime of the pit field for all of Dillon’s 4 profession Cup wins.
NASCAR by the Numbers
17
High-10 finishes by Chase Elliott in the course of the common season, probably the most on this postseason discipline. Chase Briscoe (4) has the fewest.
one hundred pc
Of full-time drivers (32) to earn a top-10 end in the course of the common season after Cody Ware earned a shock sixth at Daytona.
Taking part in the Odds (Fantasy Spin)
High Tier
Quick strokes right here because the playoff discipline ought to take heart stage in your roster. Denny Hamlin’s finest profession common end (7.8) and 4 profession Darlington victories make him a near-certain prime 10. He or Kyle Larson ought to be one choose whereas whomever you suppose is healthier from that Joey Logano-William Byron duel in Might ought to be choose quantity two.
Associated: Finest Darlington Raceway Drivers for DraftKings
Center Tier
Christopher Bell earned a career-best sixth at Darlington in Might and enters with probably the most Toyota momentum. Pair him with Tyler Reddick, a shock runner-up in that very same Might race after the Logano-Byron tangle.
Decrease Tier
Michael McDowell was a surprising seventh in Might at a monitor he by no means earned a profession top-10 end. That cheapens his wage for an underfunded Entrance Row Motorsports crew that all the time seems on the postseason as an added bonus; they received’t take a step again after failing to make it.
The identical goes for Corey LaJoie, whose No. 7 Spire Motorsports crew was a shock fifteenth within the Southern 500 final fall. Count on quite a few wrecks as soon as once more to get rid of a couple of prime contenders, giving LaJoie an opportunity to each survive and thrive.
What Vegas Thinks
The vegasinsider.com odds have Kyle Larson pegged as the favourite at +600, adopted by Tyler Reddick at +700 and each Chase Elliott and Joey Logano tied at +800.
In search of a longshot? Michael McDowell is sitting fairly at +3000.
What I Suppose
I’m choosing Joey Logano for a little bit of a shock, pulling off the uncommon Darlington sweep and asserting Crew Penske’s power because the postseason will get underway.
— Written by Tom Bowles, who’s a part of the Athlon Contributor Community and the Majority Proprietor of NASCAR Website online Frontstretch.com. He may be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @NASCARBowles.
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